Daily Rate Lock Advisory

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Positive

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

This morning’s big economic news came from the release of May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM ET that revealed inflation at the consumer level of the economy was not as strong as thought. The overall CPI rose last month 0.1% and the more important core data was up 0.2%. These readings were expected to be up 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. Good news also came in the year-over-year numbers with the overall at a 2.4% annual pace when it was forecasted to rise at a 2.5% rate. The annual core reading that excludes more volatile food and energy costs held at April’s 2.8%. May’s numbers paint a picture that inflation is not as bad as feared, especially after tariffs affecting costs. Since slowing inflation makes bonds more attractive to investors, today’s report was good news for mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

There also is a 10-year Treasury Note auction taking place today that may have an impact on mortgage rates this afternoon. If the 1:00 PM ET results announcement indicates a strong demand from investors, we should see afternoon bond gains and a possible improvement in rates before the end of the day. However, a lackluster interest in the securities could lead to an upward revision to mortgage pricing.

High

Unknown

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Tomorrow brings us another big inflation report at 8:30 AM ET, along with the weekly unemployment update. May's Producer Price Index (PPI) is the sister release of today's Consumer Price Index (CPI). Tomorrow’s version tracks inflation at the wholesale level of the economy instead of consumer inflation. Forecasts show a 0.2% increase in the overall reading and a 0.3% rise in the more important core data. On an annual basis, analysts are expecting to see the overall reading up 0.2% to 2.6% while the core data held at April’s 3.1% pace. Weaker readings would be good news for bonds and mortgage pricing.

Medium

Unknown

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Last week’s unemployment update is predicted to reveal 242,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made. This would be a decline from the previous week’s 247,000 initial filings. Rising unemployment claims are a sign of weakness in the employment sector, so a larger than expected number would be favorable for mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

There also is a 30-year Treasury Bond auction tomorrow that may come into play during afternoon trading. As with today’s sale, a strong demand would be considered good news for mortgage rates. Results of tomorrow's auction will also be posted at 1:00 PM ET.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Float / Lock Recommendation